Another warm and quiet day is on tap for the Capital Region with no rain expected and temperatures running well above normal. Patchy fog will again be an issue late tonight into early Monday. A warming trend continues into the mid-week before a late-week storm system arrives.

Today and tonight: High pressure aloft continues to dominate the region, keeping conditions warm, stable, and dry. Moisture remains too shallow under the ridge to support much cloud growth or rain, and the atmosphere remains capped from any meaningful vertical development.

The afternoon should be mostly sunny and warm. It will be slightly more humid than yesterday. Highs reach the lower to mid-80s, several degrees above normal for mid-November. Clear and mild this evening with temperatures in the mid-60s after sunset. 

Tonight, patchy fog is once again likely toward sunrise Monday. A shallow inversion combined with calm winds will support fog formation, especially near river basins and low-lying areas. Some thin high clouds may limit the most widespread fog, but localized dense pockets remain possible.

Up next:  The ridge begins to flatten on Monday as an upper low moves across the Rockies. This starts drawing Gulf moisture back north, but lift remains weak and moisture still isn’t deep enough to support showers, so rain remains unlikely through midweek.

Temperatures warm a bit each day, and by Wednesday afternoon, some spots could come within a few degrees of record highs. Nights will stay mild, with patchy fog still possible each morning.

What to watch out for:  Global models continue to agree on a Thursday–Friday system bringing our next meaningful chance of rain. A southern trough will move through the region, but model spread remains large regarding its strength and how quickly it ejects eastward.

Some guidance suggests some severe weather, but confidence is low at this time. This will become clearer as the system approaches and guidance converges.

Tropics:  No tropical development is expected in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic over the next 7 days.

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– Dave

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