It’s going to be a sizzlin’ weekend, with highs in the mid-90s and heat index values near 108° each afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect today—take shade breaks, drink plenty of water, and watch for signs of heat illness.

Today & Tonight: As mid-August heat rolls on, Friday starts in the 70s and quickly climbs near 90° by lunch, topping out in the mid-90s with a max heat index of 108–113°. Heat alerts remain in effect today because of the extreme heat; take it easy out there! A few (30%) may see a pop-up storm in the afternoon or early evening, but most stay hot and dry. Tonight will be partly clear with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Up Next: The weekend will be dominated by heat, with afternoon highs in the mid-90s and feels-like temperatures topping 105° at times. Each day will bring a 20–30% chance of scattered afternoon or evening showers and storms. A few storms could pack gusty winds up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rain capable of briefly flooding streets if one lingers.

Next week, high pressure sticks around, keeping highs in the low to mid-90s and daily low-end storm chances. Even with occasional clouds or showers, the heat and humidity will stay intense until the pattern changes later in the week.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Erin, located about 890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, is strengthening with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph and is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. The storm is moving west at 17 mph and will likely turn west-northwest tonight, bringing its center near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Residents of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor its progress. Swells from Erin could reach these areas by the weekend, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the disturbance located over the western Gulf continues to lack a closed low-level
circulation. However, shower activity has increased some over the past few hours and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas Friday afternoon or evening.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.