Both Colorado State University and NOAA have updated their mid-season hurricane outlooks, and both are calling for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin.
The main driver behind the quieter forecast is a strengthening El Niño. The Storm Station Weather Team has been covering this for weeks and says it's expected to be one of the strongest on record.
El Niño ramps up wind shear across the Atlantic hurricane basin, which tends to tear apart developing storms. Conditions in the Atlantic basin right now mirror other seasons in the past that have been quiet.
Colorado State is forecasting nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane for the season. NOAA updated its numbers to seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and up to two major hurricanes.
So far, the season has produced two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, both of which formed in the Gulf. No hurricanes have developed yet. Those two tropical systems are included in the numbers of the recent updates.
Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-June off the Texas coast, bringing record rainfall to parts of Louisiana and spawning tornadoes along the Gulf coast. Bertha formed south of the Florida panhandle and made landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.
"Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated," said NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. "That's why it's important to prepare for every storm that's projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength."
Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's National Weather Service, said El Nino is becoming the dominant factor this season. "When El Nino emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity and this El Nino continues to get stronger every month," Rosencrans said. "Compared to a mature El Nino, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin."
It's worth noting that the seasonal outlook covers total activity across the basin, not where storms will actually go. Even a below-average season can be serious for any one location that takes a direct hit.
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Colorado State puts the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the entire continental U.S. coastline at 16 percent, compared to the long-term average of 43 percent. NOAA forecasters put a 75 percent chance on below-normal activity, a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and just a 5 percent chance of above-normal activity.
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