MIAMI —Inside the National Hurricane Center, hurricane forecasting is constantly evolving. From new forecast models to aircraft flying directly into storms, forecasters say the goal is no longer just predicting where a hurricane will go; it’s helping people understand what impacts they could face.
Dr. Michael Brennan, the National Hurricane Center Director, said communication is key.
“Well, my job in particular is very focused on the communication, the preparedness, the readiness, ensuring that the message gets out and that we get a consistent message out across the entire enterprise,” Dr. Brennan said.
While forecast tracks have improved significantly over the last several decades, one of the biggest remaining challenges is forecasting how storms rapidly strengthen and how their structure changes before landfall.
“Predicting intensity is still challenging, especially rapid intensification, even though we've started to make some real strides in that aspect in the last, especially five years or so”, Dr. Brennan said.
A major reason for those improvements is the massive amount of data collected directly from inside hurricanes. The Hurricane Hunters fly through storms, gathering measurements on wind speed, pressure, moisture, and storm structure, feeding the data directly into forecast models.
“When we have the aircraft data, the track and intensity guidance we get from the models are 10 to 20% better,” Dr. Brennan added.
However, improving the forecast itself is only part of the mission. Clearly communicating the risks to the public has become just as important, especially when it comes to the storm surge, according to the leader of the Storm Surge Unit, Cody Fritz.
“I think a lot of people do focus more so on the category of a hurricane," Fritz said. "So they think, okay, Category 1, not so bad. Category 5, really bad.”
Storm surge experts said that can create a dangerous misunderstanding, especially along the Gulf Coast.
“Even a Category 1 hurricane can produce a significant storm surge along the Gulf Coast, for example,” Fritz added.
The Hurricane Center said newer storm surge products, evacuation mapping, social media communication and mobile-friendly forecasts are all designed to help people better understand their personal risk before a storm arrives.
“We're really trying to make efforts to improve the ways people can directly get information from us,” Dr. Brennan said.
Ultimately, forecasters said the most important step people can take this hurricane season is understanding their vulnerability before a storm ever forms.
“Know what your risk is," Dr. Brennan said. "From all the hazards that a hurricane can bring, whether that's storm surge, whether it's wind, flooding, rainfall, tornadoes, surf, and rip currents. That's going to be the basis of your personal preparedness plan for you and your family.”
The National Hurricane Center said even in quieter hurricane seasons, it only takes one storm impacting your community to make it a dangerous year.
