The weather will turn quieter as the new workweek begins. But the next storm system will arrive in a few days, and with good news for those waiting for a plunge into fall.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies will generally prevail overnight. Thanks to a little nudge of drier air, expect morning lows to dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Capital Area. Monday will be pleasant, with humidity more on the comfortable side of the spectrum. A few passing low clouds may drift in, especially near the Louisiana–Mississippi line. Even so, mostly sunny skies will be the dominant theme with highs reaching the low 80s by afternoon.

Up Next: Don’t expect too many changes during the day on Tuesday, but Tuesday night is a different story. A strong cold front will barrel into south Louisiana overnight, bringing a few scattered showers and storms along for the ride. A brisk northwest wind will take over behind the front, delivering the first true fall cooldown of the season. Highs will struggle to top the mid-60s on Wednesday, and lows will plummet into the mid-40s early Thursday. The rest of the week will be dry, crisp, and perfect for fall outdoor plans — including Halloween. Consider adding an extra layer to costumes this year, temperatures will be falling through the 60s and into the 50s during trick-or-treating hours.

The Tropics: Hurricane Melissa underwent a period of explosive intensification in the Caribbean over the weekend. A major Category 4 storm on Sunday, Melissa might reach Category 5 strength by Monday as it begins turning north toward Jamaica. Jamaica is already feeling the storm’s impact with heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds battering the island. Conditions will only deteriorate in the coming days. A direct landfall early Tuesday appears likely. From there, Melissa will continue northeast, impacting eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center notes the following anticipated impacts:

Jamaica: Seek shelter now.  Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.

Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country.

Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday.  In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

Get the latest 7-day forecast and real-time weather updates HERE.

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— Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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