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Wednesday evening video forecast
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Both heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will be possible overnight into Thursday morning. Have a way to receive alerts.
7:58pm: The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring trends around the region as conditions could become supportive of brief tornadoes over the next several hours. A watch may be issued. Tropical rain bands are increasing around Louisiana and Mississippi. Activity is expected to ramp up through the evening as the upper-level energy associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Arthur moves through. A corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans to I-55 appears most likely to see some of the heaviest rain.
A FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for the entire Capital Region through Friday morning. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding safety, CLICK HERE.
Widespread additional amounts of 3-6 inches of rain with “streaks” of 6-12 inches are likely. If those amounts occur in our cities rather than open marsh or swamp land, it will trigger significant poor drainage and river flooding.
Tonight and Tomorrow: This evening and overnight will have very impactful weather. Heavy, tropical rain bands will move inland as Tropical Storm Arthur makes landfall in southwest Louisiana. Rain will be likely most of the night. Rates will be incredibly high in some places, and could quickly lead to flash flooding. Driving will be dangerous overnight, and the morning commute will be messy in the hardest-hit areas. Prepare for much slower drive times and the possibility of flooded roadways. In addition to the heavy rain, circulation associated with the tropical storm could also lead to an isolated, brief tornado. Thursday, more and more breaks in rain can be expected through the day. To be clear, though, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible and capable of heavy rain in a short time. Occasional breaks of sunshine will help highs into the upper 80s, and it will still feel very humid in the leftover tropical air mass.
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Up Next: On Friday, the tropical system will finally pull away to the east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop due to lingering tropical moisture. Expect a slow, gradual lowering of daily rain coverage with the pattern moving back toward daytime warming pop-up thunderstorms over the weekend. Humidity will stay in place and highs will return to the 90s.
Get the latest 7-day forecast and real-time weather updates HERE.
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The Tropics: As of 4:00 PM, Tropical Storm Arthur was situated 195 miles west-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana. The storm was moving north-northeast at approximately 7 mph, a trajectory that is expected to carry the center further inland over southeastern Texas tonight. Arthur maintained maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 175 miles from its center. Steady weakening is anticipated as the system moves further inland, and it is expected to dissipate late tonight or early Thursday.
River Flooding: With recent heavy rain and more storms on the way, several local river gauges are forecast to rise. To track conditions, find the latest river levels and forecasts below, updated twice every hour.
— The Storm Station Meteorologists
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