The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its 2025 Hurricane Outlook. NOAA predicts an above-average season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. This is in line with Colorado State University's forecast issued in April. 

Warm Atlantic waters and absence of an El Niño are the primary reasons for the above-average prediction. Currently, we are in what is considered an ENSO neutral phase (neither El Niño or La Niña). The latest projections show continued ENSO-neutral conditions over the next couple of months. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with ENSO neutral (or potentially La Niña) conditions typically provides a more favorable environment for hurricane formation and intensification.

As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. Keep in mind that El Niño and La Niña do not “cause” any one specific weather event; rather the two phases of ENSO influence change in global climate patterns that then increase the likelihood of specific weather events. Once again, ENSO is not “to blame” for any one storm system, temperature anomaly, or hurricane.

During ENSO-neutral conditions, El Niño typically reduces the amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin because it increases the amount of vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear is strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that typically work to prevent circulations like tropical systems from becoming fully formed. The opposite is true for La Niña, which typically reduces the amount of vertical wind shear. When in a neutral phase, forecast for wind shear is neither above or below normal.

The Storm Station likes to remind that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you,” so prepare accordingly. There have been seasons with a lot of storms but few impacts to land and seasons with few storms but a lot of impacts to land. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, visit wbrz.com/weather and click on the hurricane center.