It’s been a quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season, but the opposite rings true in the East Pacific. They are already on their fifth named storm. On average, that doesn’t happen until July 23.

Hurricane Erick is the latest development. Only a tropical storm on Tuesday, the storm became a major Category 3 hurricane Wednesday evening. Erick is poised to slam into southern Mexico Thursday as a major hurricane. Landfall will likely occur between Acapulco and Puerto Escondido. This is very close to where Hurricane Otis made landfall in 2023, rewriting history in the process.

Rainfall looks to be a big problem across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with totals of 8-12” and isolated hotspots up to 16”. This will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and rivers jumping their banks. Since much of the impacted area has steep terrain, dangerous mudslides are also possible.

Meanwhile, storm surge will also produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. Tropical storm and hurricane-force winds are also likely in the region. Hurricane-force winds will be confined closer to the center of circulation, but tropical-storm force winds will extend roughly 100 miles outward from the center.

The Mexican government is bracing for Erick’s impact. President Claudia Sheinbaum warned residents in the storm's path Wednesday to heed government instructions and wait out the storm in their homes or in shelters. The Federal Electricity Commission of Mexico said Wednesday that it is prepared to address electrical supply. Hundreds of workers, cranes, and utility vehicles as well as lighting towers, emergency plants, and helicopters were deployed in strategic locations.

This storm will weaken after landfall and not pose any threat to the Atlantic side.

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