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Thursday PM Forecast: Gulf Coast heat index to reach 108-112 degrees this weekend

39 minutes 18 seconds ago Thursday, June 25 2026 Jun 25, 2026 June 25, 2026 3:33 PM June 25, 2026 in Forecast Discussion
Source: The Storm Station

With daily showers and thunderstorms becoming the exception rather than the rule, temperatures are set to climb. Triple-digit heat indices will be common by late weekend.

Weekend Sizzle: several highs in the mid-90s, heat alerts possible

Dusty Tropics: Saharan layer stops tropical development, brings colorful sunsets

Next Boost in T-Storms: isolated afternoon activity by the middle of next week

Tonight & Tomorrow: Skies will clear out overnight as low temperatures reach for the mid 70s. Friday will bring plenty of sunshine with highs in the low 90s. There is just a tiny 10% chance of a stray afternoon shower.

The first major Saharan dust plume will track across the Atlantic Basin and toward the Gulf Coast. This dry air mass acts as a natural shield against tropical development by choking out the moisture that storms need to grow and thrive. Additionally, dust particles create hazy daytime skies before scattering the light rays to produce vivid, fiery-orange sunsets. Haze was already noticed across the region on Thursday. Sometimes, the dust concentrations can be thick enough to lower air quality so that potential health issues will need to be monitored for anyone with a breathing sensitivity.

Up Next: A ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere will tighten its grip on the region this weekend into next week. The ridge overhead results in warm, sinking air that squashes most thunderstorm development and causes warmer temperatures. Afternoons will soar into the mid 90s. Since the region is so green and wet from recent heavy rain, the air will feel extra thick as lush plants release moisture into the atmosphere in a process known as evapotranspiration. The heat and humidity combination will result in feels-like temperatures between 108 – 112 degrees, especially on Sunday and Monday. The National Weather Service (NWS) may need to issue heat alerts.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, that ridge will finally shift northward toward the Ohio River Valley. This movement will allow small "ripples" in the atmosphere to slide into our area, lifting the air and boosting daily rain coverage back up to 30%. These isolated, afternoon thunderstorms will bring some relief from the heat.


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The Tropics: For the North Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean, all is quiet. No development is expected over the next seven days.

– Josh 

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