With the return of warmth and humidity already underway, a stretch of unsettled weather is on the way. A cold front will bounce around the Gulf Coast late Wednesday through Saturday, leading to a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The position of the front will be critical—and to difficult to forecast—as to which locations receive showers and thunderstorms on which days.

Late Week Storms: scattered activity Wednesday night through Friday, heavy at times

Dry Time for Mom: occasional showers and thunderstorms, no washouts over weekend

Cold Front Clear-Out: another break in rain, humidity early next week

Tonight & Tomorrow: Humidity will become even more noticeable overnight as low temperatures are held in the upper 60s and low 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Wednesday will be warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid 80s along with breezy, south winds of 10-15mph. Through the day, a brief, isolated shower will be possible, but many will miss out on largely uneventful showers. Into the nighttime hours, a slow-moving cold front will drop in from the northwest. Especially over the state line in southwest Mississippi, an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible along the front, but the best ingredients and therefore greater threat for severe weather will stay farther north and closer to I-20.

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Up Next: The forecast gets more challenging starting on Thursday morning. A cold front will slide into the Baton Rouge area, at which point its movement becomes questionable. One possible scenario is that the front moves slowly across the I-10/12 corridor through the day, resulting in passing showers and thunderstorms for most of the region. Another possible scenario sends the front closer to the coast, keeping many inland locations, including the Capital City, mostly dry on Thursday. Wherever the front hangs up, it will act as a focusing point for continuous clusters of thunderstorms, possibly leading to some nuisance flooding.

On Friday, the front is expected to move back northward into the region as a warm front, helping to ignite another batch of showers and thunderstorms. Just like the previous day, some of the activity could produce downpours and lead to a few flooding issues.

Over the weekend, the front will slowly start to break apart as it drifts north. Saturday will be typical of a late spring day with scattered showers and thunderstorms, though with plenty of dry time for the spots that do get rain. Similarly, Mother’s Day activities may have to dodge an occasional shower but will not be in danger of cancellation. Weekend temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

Through the weekend, showers and thunderstorms should add up rain totals of 2-5” with locally higher amounts possible. By next Monday, another cold front will pass through the region to swipe away moisture for rain and bring down humidity. Early week highs will be in the low 80s.

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– Josh 

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