Hot and sunny mornings will lead to pop-up storms during the afternoons. While coverage may be more on the isolated side through midweek, improving moisture could result in stormier days by late week.

Tonight & Tomorrow: As leftover showers gradually wrap up through the evening, skies will clear out. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid-70s by sunrise. Sunshine will dominate for the first part of Tuesday, easily pushing temperatures in the mid-90s around or shortly after lunchtime. The humidity will not budge. Combined with the high heat, expect a heat index to push upwards of 108°. That’s Heat Advisory criteria, and another one will be in effect on Tuesday. So, continue doing the common-sense things if outside for an extended period, such as drinking water frequently and taking breaks in the shade.

Building clouds will grow into thunderstorms during the afternoon. Moisture quality doesn’t look quite as impressive on Tuesday, but that shouldn’t stop isolated storms from firing. Roughly 40% of the Capital Region should pick up measurable rain.

Up Next: The routine summer pattern will stick around through midweek with hot and sunny starts followed by isolated afternoon storms. Later in the week, tropical moisture will accumulate ahead of a weak front that will stall out to the northwest. Friday looks to be the most active day, but Thursday and Saturday will serve as transition days — so don’t rule out some rain then either. The added rain will help keep daytime temperatures a bit cooler as the workweek winds down. For Sunday and Monday, the number of storms will trend down each day. There are even indications that a front might try to punch into the area early next week, but such occurrences are rare for the time of year. An associated cooldown or humidity break appears unlikely as of now, but it’s not totally off the table.

The Tropics:

Hurricane Erin: Erin remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane as of Monday afternoon, located near the Bahamas. The storm will likely maintain its intensity for another day or so before slowly losing strength by mid to late week. Fortunately, Erin will not bring direct land impacts as it will track between the East Coast and Bermuda. However, its massive size could result in tropical storm-force winds clipping the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches have been posted for those areas. Possible coastal flooding and inundation of local highways along the Outer Banks have also prompted evacuations. Impacts will be even more far-reaching, with rough surf and dangerous rip currents being felt along the entire East Coast.

Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave following in Erin’s footsteps is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week. This disturbance will be in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

Get the latest 7-day forecast and real-time weather updates HERE.

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— Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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