It's officially the first day of fall, but it sure will not feel like it. In the tropics, a disturbance in the western Caribbean will track through the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Today & Tonight: It is now the fall! In typical Louisiana fashion, temperatures will still be in the mid 90's. Humidity will cause feels like temperatures to be 100°+. There will be a lot of sunshine, so make sure to wear sunscreen if outside for an extended period of time. Tonight, lows will be near 72 degrees under mostly clear skies. 

Up Next: The first full week of fall will feature a mix of sun and clouds, highs in the low to mid 90's, and slight chances of rain. Humidity will cause feels like temperatures to be near 100°. Nights will be muggy and slightly uncomfortable with lows in the low 70s. 

The forecast gets a little tricky by the end of the week. The two key features will be an approaching cold front to the north and a tropical disturbance to the south. How these features interact will affect our forecast. If we get a clean front passage, this will protect us from the tropical disturbance, and deliver cooler temperatures late in the week. If the front stalls to the north, there would no shield if this disturbance decides to come our way (more below). Expect some changes to the forecast and stick with the Storm Station for those updates.

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The Tropics: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. As of now, Louisiana to Florida is still in play with this system. 

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has not become better organized since yesterday. Although the low remains embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

– Balin 

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