LAKELAND, Fla. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is announcing its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.

This comes just weeks after Colorado State University issued its forecast, calling for a slightly below-average season. The development of an El Niño was the primary driver for their slightly below-average prediction, and will likely play a role in NOAA's outlook as well.

El Niño typically reduces the amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin because it increases the amount of vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear is strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere that typically prevents circulations like tropical systems from becoming fully formed. The opposite is true for La Niña, which typically reduces the amount of vertical wind shear.

As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. Keep in mind that El Niño and La Niña do not “cause” any one specific weather event; rather, the two phases of ENSO influence changes in global climate patterns that then increase the likelihood of specific weather events. Once again, ENSO is not “to blame” for any one storm system, temperature anomaly, or hurricane.

The Storm Station likes to remind that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you,” so prepare accordingly. There have been seasons with a lot of storms but few impacts to land, and seasons with few storms but a lot of impacts to land. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, visit wbrz.com/weather and click on the hurricane center. Hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and extends through Nov. 30. 

Watch NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook announcement here: