After today, daily rain coverage will decrease while temperatures climb, making it harder to escape the summertime heat by the weekend. Meanwhile, Erin could become the first hurricane of the 2025 season as it continues its westward track across the Atlantic. 

Today & Tonight: Wednesday starts off dry, warm, and muggy. Mainly to partly sunny conditions in the morning will help temperatures climb quickly into the low 90s, with feels-like readings peaking in the low 100s. By the afternoon, enough atmospheric moisture and a nearby disturbance will help trigger another scattering of showers and thunderstorms. Around 50% of the WBRZ coverage area can expect measurable rainfall on Wednesday afternoon. Overnight, skies will clear, and temperatures will drop back into the mid-70s.

Up Next: Beginning Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will start building westward across the Southeastern United States. As it strengthens, rain chances in the Capital Region will gradually decrease each day, with the least activity expected Saturday afternoon—when only a few spotty showers are possible. With less rain and more sunshine, temperatures will climb steadily. By the weekend, highs will reach the mid-90s, and triple-digit heat index values will persist for several hours each day. Peak feels-like readings could hit 106–110°, high enough for potential heat advisories. If you’ll be spending extended time outdoors this weekend, remember to stay hydrated and take breaks from the heat as needed.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Erin, located about 1500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, is moving west at 20 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Gradual strengthening is expected today, and Erin could become a hurricane by late Thursday as it moves west-northwest. While there are no watches or warnings in effect, residents of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor its progress. Longer-range forecast guidance suggests a recurve north into the Atlantic Ocean, but it remains unclear exactly when and where that will happen.

A non-tropical area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the southwest of the center. Limited tropical or subtropical development remains possible today as the low lingers near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. However, by tonight, the system is forecast to move northward over cooler waters, which will diminish its chances for any tropical development.

A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula later today with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday, while the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

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– Emma Kate C. 

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